泡沫经济前后日本宏观经济战略的调整

进入20世纪90年代,日本因泡沫经济破灭而步入了经济萧条期,这迫使日本政府对其宏观经济战略做出调整。从历史着眼,可对这一时期日本经济战略的调整有一个纵深的把握,也有助于对今后日本经济的发展前景得出一个较为客观的认识。20世纪90年代以来日本的经济调整有着深层次的制度根源。要振兴日本经济,关键不在于依托FTA这根"救命稻草",而是要克服原有制度"被锁定"的困境,并进行战略上的调整。一言以蔽之,结构性改革或者说制度改革是日本经济的唯一出路,要迈出这一步,日本政府需要足够的勇气。

On Japan's Macroeconomic Strategies Before and After the Bubble Economy

The burst of the bubble economy sent Japan into a serious depression in the 1990's,forcing the Japanese government to adjust its macroeconomic strategies.A historical review helps to understand the evolution of Japan's economic strategy and to forecast the future development of Japan's economy.This paper argues that the Japanese economic adjustment since the 1990's has rooted in a profound institutional background,what is the key to revitalize the Japanese economy is not to rely on FTAs,but to overcome the 'locked in' dilemma of its traditional institutions and to make strategic adjustments.In one word,the only exit is structural or institutional reform,which inevitably puts Japan's courage to the proof.