我国M_2/GDP的动态增长路径、货币供应量与政策选择

本文试图求解我国M2/GDP的动态增长路径,并对与此相关的金融政策选择进行分析。研究发现,我国M2/GDP的变动路径具有Logistic曲线的基本形状,将经历先加速上升后增长速度逐渐减缓,最终趋于稳定状态的变化过程。本文估算了我国M2/GDP的增长上限及其变化拐点。研究还发现,M2/GDP的上升并不必然意味着通胀压力加大,只有M2/GDP偏离动态增长路径时,才会对通货膨胀产生影响。据此本文估算了2005年货币供应量的合理区间。本文认为,应继续实施稳健货币政策,合理确定货币总量增长速度,继续推进体制性改革等措施确保经济金融的稳定运行。

The Dynamic Growth Path of M_2/GDP,Money Supply and Policy Choice in China

This paper discusses the dynamic growth path of M_2/GDP,appropriate money supply in China.We find that the dynamic growth path of M_2/GDP in China has the characteristic of the logistic curve,will first rise accelerate,then rising speed will decrease,finally tend to a upper limit.This paper estimated the upper limit and the inflection point of Chinese M_2/GDP growth path.We also discover that it is not inevitable that the rising of M_2/GDP means inflation pressure increasing.Only if(M_2/GDP) deviates dynamic growth path,money stability has been influenced.According to the above,we estimated appropriate M_2 supply quantity in 2005.We think that the central bank ought to continue to implement steady monetary policy,reasonably determines money supply quantity,and carry out financial reform and so on,to guarantee economy and money stability.