江苏省对外贸易对产业产出的影响研究——基于投入产出方法的实证分析

江苏省作为中国经济发展的强省，对中国经济的快速发展起到了重要的推动作用。因此，有必要对江苏省的经济发展进行研究，为江苏省产业结构的完善提出相应的建议，从而促进江苏省经济的进一步发展。本文以江苏省2007年投入产出表中的42个部门的数据为主要来源，利用投入产出分析方法中的平衡关系推导建立了江苏省的输入输出生产诱发模型，得到输入输出贸易对各产业产出的诱发系数。在输入输出贸易诱发系数的基础上，通过与相应的输入输出率相结合进行相关分析和回归分析，并根据相关分析和回归分析的结果对江苏省的各产业部门进行分类，从而更加清晰的分析江苏省对外贸易对产业产出的影响。通过计算分析我们可以看出，江苏省的产业产出受输入输出贸易的影响大小趋于一致，受输入贸易波动大的产业也会受到输出贸易较大的冲击。对外贸易对江苏省产业部门的波及作用首先从第二产业开始，然后向第一及第三产业产生波及效应。

Influence of Foreign Trade of Jiangsu Province on Industrial Output Analysis -Base on the Input-output Empirical Analysis

The rapid development of the Jiangsu＇s economic has played an important role in China＇s economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to study the economic development of Jiangsu province to improve the industrial structure of Jiangsu province and put forward the corresponding suggestion for promoting further development of Jiangsu＇s economic. This paper takes Jiangsu＇s input-output table of 42 sectors in 2007 as the main source of data , and calculates the Jiangsu foreign trade induced coefficient based on the foreign trade production induced model derived from the equilibrium relationship in the input-output analysis. Based on the foreign trade induced coefficient, the correlation and regression analysis are applied on foreign trade induced coefficients and input/output ratio, and we can classify the 42 industries and analyze the foreign trade effect on the industrial output. We can see that the input and output trade of Jiangsu province have the similar effect on the industrial output through calculation and analysis, and the industries which are influenced largely by input trade will be also influenced largely by output trade. The ripple effects sequence of Jiangsu＇s foreign trade is starting from the second industry firstly , then to the first and third industry.