房地产信托投资非预期风险评价方法及应用研究

房地产信托投资所具有的投资大、周期长、项目质量要求高、同业竞争激烈、流动性较弱等特征，决定了其面临的风险更多地表现为非预期性。本文从行业、项目、开发商、信托公司等方面分析了房地产信托投资非预期风险的成因，并归纳了非预期风险因素的构成因子，根据多级模糊综合评价原理，以某房地产信托投资业务为研究对象，在充分调研和对数据资料实施规范化处理的基础上，构建了非预期风险评价模型，对各类非预期风险因素进行了三级模糊综合评价，识别了各非预期风险因素的重要性程度，为房地产信托投资机构评价、监测、控制房地产信托投资业务的非预期风险提供了重要的信息支持。

The Methods of Evaluation and Applied Research of the REITs Unexpected Risks

As a result of the characteristics such as huge investment, long cycle, high quality standards, fierce horizontal co-mpetition and weak liquidity, the risk of the real estate investment trusts is unexpected. According to the cause analysis of the REITs＇ unexpected risk from the aspects of industry, project, developers as well as trust companies, the formation factors of the unexpected risk have been concluded. Taking a real estate investment trust business as the research object , on the basis of wide survey and standardization treatment for the data, the evaluation model of the unexpected risk is established by the usage of the multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation principle. In details , using the tertiary FCE to evaluate the unexpected risk factors , the significance of every risk factor is recognized. Moreover , the REITs institutions are provided with an important information and methodology support on the evaluation, monitoring and control of the REITs industry＇s unexpected risk.