碳边界调节措施对中国出口产品影响评估

虽然2012年后全球温室气体减排机制尚未达成,但各国纷纷制定气候和能源法案以促进减排。为维持国内企业竞争力,防止碳泄露和能源密集型产业转移,部分国家可能会实施单边贸易措施。文章主要结合美国相关法案,作出合理政策假设,利用IPCC二氧化碳排放计算方法和投入产出模型,考察潜在碳边界调节措施对中国出口影响。结果发现,中国整体出口受碳成本上升影响有限,但基本钢铁产业、化学制造产业和非矿物制造产业的出口产品受冲击较大。

The Evaluation of the Impact of Potential Border Carbon Adjustment Measures on Chinese Exports

Copenhagen and Cacun meetings failed to reach an agreement on post-2012 global emissions reduction mechanism,however,developed economies have proposed a policy proposal on climate change and energy,including implementing unilateral trade measures.The paper evaluates how Chinese exports are vulnerable to potential border carbon adjustments based on the assessment of cost increases from the application of carbon price of $20/t CO2 equivalent or $50/t CO2 equivalent,and clearly shows that there are many uncertainties in how border carbon adjustment might be designed.The application of carbon price,the methodology of assessing the carbon content of goods,and the design detail of schemes are key factors for the vulnerability of Chinese exports to potential border carbon adjustment measures.