中国进出口贸易的实证研究——基于协整分析与误差修正模型

本文利用中国1951—2004年间进出口的年度数据和物价指数进行协整检验并建立误差修正模型,对进出口的长期均衡关系和短期动态关系做了实证研究。结果表明:进口、出口以及物价之间存在协整关系;出口对当期进口的变动较为敏感,而滞后一期的误差项则以较快的速度对出口变动做出反向修正;文章最后对我国外贸政策提出了若干建议。

On the Relations between Chinese Import and Export-An Empirical Analysis based on ECM

Using the yearly data from 1951 to 2004 of Chinese import and export and price index, this paper applies the cointegration testing and establishes an error correcting model to study their long-term and short-term relations. The results are as follows: there exists cointegration relations among the three variables; export is sensitive to import, and one-period lag error correcting item reverses export rapidly. This paper finally comes up with suggestions on trade policy.