居民消费对财政支出的非线性反应关系探索--基于通货膨胀视角下的门限模型和 STR 模型分析

政府财政支出如何影响居民消费一直是国内外研究的热点，但并没有形成一致的结论。文章通过将通货膨胀率引入两者的关系系统中，构造门限模型和平滑转换回归模型对其进行了实证研究。研究结果发现，通货膨胀在政府财政支出如何影响居民消费中起门限或转换作用，存在着某个通货膨胀率，政府财政支出在其两侧会以两种不同机制影响居民消费；政府财政支出增加会对当期居民消费存在挤出作用，对下一期居民消费起挤入作用，但从其综合影响程度来看，挤入作用要强于挤出作用。文章最后根据研究结论给出了一些政策建议。

The Nonlinear Relationship Exploration of Consumption to Government Expenditure---Based on threshold model and STR model in the perspective of inflation

How government expengiture affects consumption has been a hot research topic at home and a-broad, but a consistent conclusion did not has been formd. In this paper, the inflation will be introducted to the relationship systems, and analyse it based on Threshold model and Smooth Transition Regression model. The results showed that inflation plays the role of threshold or conversion in government expendi-ture affecting the consumer, there is a certain inflation rate,government expenditure will be affect the consumption in two different mechanisms on both sides; government expenditure will squeezed out the consumption in the current period and squeezed into it in the next time , but its overall impact, the for-ward effect is stronger than squeeze out. Finally, the paper gives some inspiration based on the conclu-sions.