| Abstract: | A future agricultural research agenda for Pakistan and its provinces was developed as part of the national master agricultural research plan (NMARP) under the Government of Pakistan, World Bank agricultural research project II (ARP-II). The current research agenda mainly keeps pace with maintenance research and little contribution is being made to increase the productivity above maintenance levels for most crop and livestock commodities. Thus, the present Pakistan agricultural research system cannot contribute in any substantial or efficient way to the narrowing of Pakistan's projected food deficit anticipated in the next 15 years. A major thrust of the ARP-II project was identifying a new research agenda with agricultural research priority setting as the basis. An ex ante economic surplus priority setting analysis at the national level was undertaken for selected agricultural commodities as part of the priority setting process. Three eparate research funding scenarios were analyzed: (1) Scenario I: an ex ante analysis using the present research commodity funding levels and present research management level for each year over the next five years, (2) Scenario II: an ex ante analysis using double the present funding level for each year over the next 5 years with a higher research management level than at present, and (3) Scenario III; an ex ante analysis at an ‘optimally’ funded level with a higher research management level. An efficiency index (NPV divided by the present value of research expenditure) was used for the priority ranking of commodities. A framework for using the information generated by the ex ante economic surplus method is presented. The results of the analysis proved to be useful as baseline information for researchers and research managers to assess the overall budget commitment required for agricultural research in Pakistan and for identifying an overall research strategy at the national level. |
