A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy |
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| Authors: | Mario Mazzocchi Davide Delle Monache Alexandra E Lobb |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Statistics , University of Bologna , Italy m.mazzocchi@unibo.it;3. Department of Statistics , University of Bologna , Italy;4. Department of Agricultural and Food Economics , University of Reading , UK |
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| Abstract: | This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach. |
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| Keywords: | subjective expectations pension reform uncertainty savings |
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