The MDGs and exit time: the case of the Philippines

This article evaluates whether the Philippines will be able to halve the incidence of poverty between 1990 and 2015. Using the concept of exit time and household‐level data, we find that the Philippines as a whole will not be able to comply with Target 1 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), although 15 of its provinces will be able to do so. These provinces are closer to Manila, characterized by higher per capita expenditure growth rates, and had lower incidence of poverty in 1988. This suggests the importance of policies to mitigate the regional disparity in achieving the MDGs.