Monetary targeting in the Netherlands: an application of co-integration tests

There are two criteria to choose an intermediate variable for monetary targeting. First, the money demand function needs to be stable and second, the monetary authorities should be able to control the target variable given the available instruments. In this paper we examine whether M1 and M2 in the Netherlands fulfil the first requirement, i.e. we investigate whether a stable relationship exists between these monetary variables and key macroeconomic variables. Co-integration techniques are used which are very well suited for this purpose. Monetary policy in the Netherlands has been directed towards the growth rate of broad money (M2). The present findings do not suport the choice of M2 as an intermediate target for monetary policy in the Netherlands. A stable long-term relationship between M2 and real NNP and Long-and short-term interest rates does not exist. The results for M1 are considerbly better, though not favourable at all scores. The estimated moeny demand function for M1 is a good indicator for monetary policy, since the Dutch central bank probably cannot control the growth rate of M1.