Unemployment,Vacancies and Conditions of Excess Demand for Labor in Canada

The explanation of state and local government expenditures has received considerable attention since Fabricant's study Trends in Government Activity Since 1900. These studies have been subject to at least two important shortcomings. One of their limitations stems from the estimation procedures used, while the other is the result of an incomplete model of the process underlying the determination of such expenditures. For the most part, past studies have used either cross-sectional data for a particular year or time series data for a single state. Consequently, the explanations resulting from these analyses either fail to capture the dynamic aspects of the problem in the first case, or remain localized to a particular state in the second. Since expenditure decisions are influenced by both historical events acting through time and economic, political, and demographic factors working at a point in time, studies which fail to integrate both types of information into the estimation process are imcomplete.

The purpose of this paper is to suggest a methodology for using both types of information. Accordingly, the resulting technique is a more efficient approach for estimating state and local government expenditure determinants. The technique is a generalized Aitken estimator for a system of unrelated regressions and was first introduced by ZELLNER (1962). The second problem with past research is the result of the inadequacy of our models for public goods and collective consumption in general, the decision process underlying public provision of goods and services has not been subjected to comprehensive modeling. ^{1 1} Some work has begun in this area. See HAEFELE (1970, 1971, 1972) as well as the references he cites. Therefore empirical analyses of expenditure patterns have been based on incompletely developed models. Our approach will be to suggest a model which is representative of the existing literature, sketch its theoretical foundation, and discuss the areas for future research. The present paper will not, however, attempt to develop a more complete model of the public decision process.

Section I of the paper briefly summarizes the primary research efforts in this area. It is followed by an explanation of the model and of the technique used for this study. Section IV presents the results for nine expenditure categories for state and local governments in the U.S. in 1957, 1962, and 1967. The last section summarizes the conclusions of the paper and discusses the scope for further research.