Simulating economic growth effects on food and nutrition security in Yemen: A new macro–micro modeling approach |
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| Institution: | 1. Hubert Department of Global Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA;2. Department of Epidemiology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA;3. Department of Sociology, Emory University, Atlanta, GA;1. School of Education, University of São Paulo–USP, São Paulo, SP, Brazil;2. School of Nutrition, Federal University of Pernambuco – UFPE, Brazil;3. Scientific Writing Laboratory, School of Medicine, Federal University of Cariri, Barbalha, Ceara, Brazil;4. Mais Médicos Program, Ministry of Health – MS, Iguatu, Ceara, Brazil;5. Regional Hospital of Cariri – HRC, Juazeiro do Norte, Ceará, Brazil;6. São Vicente de Paulo Hospital and Maternity Hospital, Oncology Service, Barbalha, Ceará, Brazil;7. Julio Alves de Lira Hospital and Maternity Hospital, Belo Jardim, Pernambuco, PE, Brazil;8. Intensive Care at the Federal University of Vale do São Francisco–UNIVASF, Petrolina, Pernambuco, Brazil;9. Graduate Program in Neuropsychiatry, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco – UFPE, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents an innovative approach for estimating changes in a country's food and nutrition security subject to economic growth and related income distribution over time. Specifically, we combine a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with household- and individual-level regression models and apply this macro–micro approach to assess the effects of Yemen's crisis-induced economic recession in 2011/12, together with two alternative transition scenarios from 2013 to 2020. Our results strongly suggest that not only more rapid, but also broader based economic growth will be needed for a quick return to pre-crisis food and nutrition security levels in Yemen. In addition to broader based growth that benefits the poor, targeted measures for improving nutrition such as integrated childcare programs and awareness campaigns related to family planning, female education, and qat consumption are needed. |
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