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Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models
Institution:1. Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin, 2225 Speedway, Stop C3100, Austin, TX 78712, USA;2. Department of Economics, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-746, South Korea;3. Department of Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and CAMA, 214 David Kinley Hall, 1407 W. Gregory, Urbana, IL 61801, USA;1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, 20th Street and Constitution Avenue N.W., D.C. Washington 20551, USA;2. European Central Bank, Monetary Policy Research Division, Frankfurt 60640, Germany
Abstract:The literature has long agreed that the divine coincidence holds in standard New Keynesian models: the monetary authority is able to simultaneously stabilize inflation and output gap in response to preference and technology shocks. I show that the divine coincidence holds only when inflation is stabilized at exactly zero. Even small deviations from zero generate policy trade-offs. I demonstrate this result using the model׳s non-linear equilibrium conditions to avoid biases from log-linearization. When the model is log-linearized, a non-zero steady state level of inflation gives rise to what I call the endogenous trend inflation cost-push shock in the New -Keynesian Phillips curve.
Keywords:Policy trade-off  Divine coincidence  Optimal policy  Trend inflation
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