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Modelling industrial new orders
Institution:1. Output and Demand Division, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany;2. Macroeconomic Statistics Division, European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany;1. Real Estate and Housing, College of Management and Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, N1G 2W1, Canada;2. School of Business, Montclair State University, 1 Normal Ave, Partridge Hall 429, Montclair, NJ 07043, United States;1. Department of Economics, SUNY at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, United States;2. Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade, Sejong-si, South Korea
Abstract:This article models industrial new orders across the European Union (EU) countries for various breakdowns. A common modelling framework exploits soft (business opinion surveys) as well as hard data (industrial turnover). The estimates show for about 200 cases that the model determinants significantly help in explaining new orders' monthly growth rates. An alternative estimation method, different model specifications and out-of-sample and real-time forecasting all show that the model results are robust. We present real-time outcomes of a European Central Bank (ECB) indicator on industrial new orders at an aggregated euro area level. This indicator is largely based on national new orders data and on estimates yielded by the model for those countries that no longer report new orders at the national level. Finally, we demonstrate the leading content of the ECB indicator on euro area new orders for industrial production.
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