Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread |
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Affiliation: | 1. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Dakar, Senegal;2. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), PO Box 30709, Nairobi, Kenya;1. Animal and Plant Health Agency, Woodham Lane, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, United Kingdom;2. Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), Stoneleigh Park, Kenilworth, Warwickshire CV8 2TL, United Kingdom;3. Wageningen University Social Science, PO Box 8130 6700 EW, Wageningen, The Netherlands;1. Instituto Politécnico da Guarda, 6300-559 Guarda, Portugal;2. Departamento de Matemática, Universidade da Beira Interior, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal |
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Abstract: | Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks. |
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Keywords: | Animal disease outbreaks Avoidable losses Incremental benefits |
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