A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria;2. Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria;1. University of Zurich, 203, Rämistr. 66, CH-8006 Zürich, Switzerland;2. Brunel University London, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, United Kingdom;3. European Central Bank, Kasiserstr. 29, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany;1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China, 59 Zhongguancun Street, Beijing 100872, PR China;2. Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Beijing 100081, PR China;1. Transilvania University of Brasov, B-dul Eroilor 29, 500036 Brasov, Romania;2. Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, 050711 Bucuresti, Romania;3. Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Casa Academiei, Calea 13 Septembrie nr.13, sector 5, 050711 Bucuresti, Romania;1. Érudite, Université Paris-Est, and TEPP, Faculté de Sciences économiques et de gestion, 61, Avenue du Général de Gaulle, 94010 Créteil Cedex, France;2. Érudite, Université Paris-Est, Faculté de Sciences économiques et de gestion, 61, Avenue du Général de Gaulle, 94010 Créteil Cedex, France |
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| Abstract: | This study develops and uses for forecast a small-scale macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy. The effects of three policy scenarios built around the assumptions of the changes that the Central Bank of Nigeria is likely to make to the Monetary Policy Rate are proposed and analyzed. Trade-off among the scenarios is identified in terms of their potential impacts on key macroeconomic indicators like inflation, exchange rate, output and lending rate. The results show that the monetary authority has to make a choice between the objectives of maintaining a stable exchange rate and lowering the lending rate. |
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