转型经济中劳动力迁移对非农就业的影响——中国农户调查数据的分析

基于2009年中国农村金融调查数据,本文建立多项Logit就业选择模型,识别劳动力迁移对返乡农民工非农就业的影响,并利用2008年9月之后返乡农民工样本考察劳动力迁移的潜在内生性及可能导致的估计偏误.本文发现:由于内生性的存在,导致劳动力迁移效应被高估约8.5个百分点.相比从未迁移的农村劳动力,劳动力迁移促使农民工返乡后更多地受雇于非农工作,而对自主创业的影响不大.在中国转型经济中,农村剩余劳动力向城市迁移后提高了非农产业技能,为农村非农产业的发展积累了人力资本.返乡农民工具有更多的金融资本和人力资本,将在中国独特的城市化建设中起到重要作用.

The Effects of Migration of Labor Force on Non-agricultural Employment in Transitional Economy:Evidence from Household Survey of Rural China

Based on the household survey of rural China in 2009,this paper sets up three multinomial logit models to identify the effects of migration of labor force on non-agricultural employment in transitional economy,and removes the endophytism problems of migration which leads to a biased estimator.We find that the key estimator has been overestimated by 8.5 percentage points because of the endophytism problems of migration,and return migrants are more likely to engage in non-agricultural activities but fail to t...