Heterogeneous agent modelling of technology adoption in competitive agricultural markets

Slow adoption rates of innovation in rural settings are a source of frustration for technology advocates. Adoption decisions consume two valuable but limited resources: (1) time, and (2) capacity to integrate new information. We explore the structural sociological factors using a heterogeneous agent programming model (HAM) to understand the mechanics of socio-economic linkages of diffusion in rural settings. Diffusion constraints are introduced in the form of network-threshold values that reflect the cumulative effects of experience and observation of peers’ experiences. We test a range of confounding factors and find that strong social pressures dramatically increase both innovation diffusion penetration and irregularity. Clustering is caused by strong social pressures and the aggregation of buyers near innovative firms which creates a pattern of buying explosions. As competition between innovators increases, the resulting diffusion process becomes more variable and irregular and is highly likely to result in innovation monopolies in rural areas.