欧元美元汇率挑战预期

本文通过对欧元创设以前以及成功实施以后来自大西洋两岸学者们的不同观点的回顾，指出欧元／美元汇率变动并非如人们所预料的那样。原因在于经济模型不可能穷尽所有的基本因素，在于媒体以及其他未曾预料的事件实际上不可能使模型正常运作。

The Euro-dollar Exchange Rate Defies Prediction

The paper reviews the diverging views held across the Atlantic on the prospects of creating the euro before its creation and the prospects of its success afterwards. The paper then goes on to show that the euro-dollar exchange rate generally defied prediction. The reason is to be found in the inability of the modeling exercise to consider all the fundamental forces at work and the fact that news and other unexpected events have been practically impossible to model precisely.