我国货币政策的实效分析

本文运用希克斯－汉森模型作为基本分析工具，采用实证计量分析手段，对我国改革 开放以来的ＭＰＣ、ＭＰＳ及居民实物储蓄、货币储蓄和金融储蓄数据进行分析，将其纳入希克斯 －汉森模型，作出ＩＳ曲线陡峭， ＬＭ曲线平缓的现实模拟模型，由此分析得出我国近几年来货 币政策尤其是自１９９８年以来货币政策效果微弱的结论 。笔者列举了货币政策微弱的原因：没有 一个足以发挥政策的场地，资本市场非市场化，各行为人不能平等进入资本市场，从而导致利 率扭曲和贷款不真实，及Ｓ不能及时转化为Ｉ，造成严重的投资需求不足。解决的办法是：短 期内，加大投资，将Ｓ转化为Ⅰ，它将比刺激消费更有效。长期内，将资本推向市场，使货币 政策真正发挥作用。

Analysis of the Performance of Monetary Policy in China

The Paper makes a study on MPC, MPS, residents' savings in kind, monetary savings and financial savings datum, using the Hicks-Hansen model as the basic analyzing tool, and also using the method of positive quantitative analysis, and brings the analysis into the Hicks-Hansen model, makes out realistic simulated model of steep IS curve and gentle LM curve, and then get the conclusion that effectiveness of monetary policy over recent years(especially since 1998 ) has been weak. The authors shows reasons for the weakness of monetary policy: The lack of space for monetary policy. the non-mar- ketization of capital market, non-equal entrance of capital market, and these caused the problems of distortion interest rate and loans, non-timely transfer of S into I, and led to the problem of serious lack of investment demand. The solution of those problems depends on: in short terms, expanding the investment, transferring S into I, which is more effective than stimulating consumption; in the long run, pushing capital into market and making monetary policy really useful.