The Poll Results Hypothesis |
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Authors: | Richard J Cebula Daniel Hulse |
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Institution: | (1) Armstrong Atlantic State University, Savannah, GA, USA |
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Abstract: | This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the rational voter model so as to reflect the potential impact
of the results of polls of likely voters’ Presidential candidate preferences on the expected benefits of voting and hence
on the voter participation rate. This study introduces the poll results hypothesis: in any given state, given the existence
of the Electoral College, the greater the lead of a principal Presidential candidate over his/her closest rival as revealed
in polls of likely voters, the lower, for at least some portion of prospective voters, the expected gross benefits of voting
in that state and hence the lower the aggregate voter participation rate in that state. In a cross-section study of the 50
states during the 2004 general election, it is found, after allowing for a variety of other factors, that the greater the
lead (as revealed in polls of likely voters) of either of the principal Presidential candidates over the other in any given
state, the lower the voter turnout rate in that state.
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Keywords: | rational voter model real world framework experimental framework voting behavior voting process |
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