Forecasting as an aid to R & D decision making in the nuclear power field

The pay-off from a new power system does not begin to accrue until many years after the initial research; and perhaps not until 10 years or more after major development programmes are launched. The ensuing benefit to the community in terms of reduced power costs may be spread over 30 to 40 years—combining the lifetime of the stations with the period over which they might be installed. Ideally therefore, the Atomic Energy Authority would like to have accurate forecasts of electricity demand and its characteristics in terms of load factors, etc., 30 to 40 years ahead. This paper describes attempts by the Authority to forecast electricity requirements at and beyond the end of the century as a background to their consideration of the relative merits of alternative future nuclear power systems and the distribution of research effort between them. The study was conducted between 1969 and 1971. The danger of the Middle East countries restricting oil supplies and raising prices was foreseen but in a less acute form and later than has actually occurred. The recent developments are likely to lead to pauses in economic growth followed by growth at lower rates than otherwise. Where forecasts in this article are given in the form of ranges, the lower bounds of the range are likely to apply—at least in the short and medium term.