| 基于风险因子和AHP的财政风险非参数预警系统构建与实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 洪源.基于风险因子和AHP的财政风险非参数预警系统构建与实证分析[J].广东商学院学报,2011,26(6):12-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 洪源 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙,410079 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究项目，湖南省哲学社会科学基金一般项目，湖南省高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以风险因子法和层次分析方法(AHP)作为非参数模型预警方法,从预警指标体系的设立、预警指标数据的指数化处理、权重的确定、风险评价函数的建立以及预警信号系统的设计等五个方面构建我国财政风险非参数预警系统.运用该系统对我国财政风险进行实证分析,结果表明,虽然1998年～2008年间我国财政总体风险处于“轻警”状态,但进入2...
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| 关 键 词： | 财政风险 非参数预警系统 风险因子法 层次分析方法 |
The Construction and Empirical Analysis of Nonparametric Early-warning System of Fiscal Risk Based on Risk Factor Method and AHP |
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| HONG Yuan.The Construction and Empirical Analysis of Nonparametric Early-warning System of Fiscal Risk Based on Risk Factor Method and AHP[J].Journal of Guangdong Business College,2011,26(6):12-23. |
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| Authors: | HONG Yuan |
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| Institution: | HONG Yuan(Economy and Trade College,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper constructs the early-warning system of fiscal risk from five aspects such as the establishment of early-warning indexes,the indicator processing of early-warning index data,the determining of weight,the building of risk function,and the design of early-warning signal system based on risk factor method and AHP.It then makes an empirical analysis of our country's fiscal risk by using the early-warning system.The results show that our country's fiscal risk is in a slight warning state during the peri... |
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| Keywords: | fiscal risk early-warning system risk factor method AHP |
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