外国直接投资对中国国内投资的影响:挤入还是挤出?

在开放经济条件下,外国直接投资(FDI)对东道国国内资本的形成具有重要影响,这表现在FDI对国内投资的挤入(挤出)效应上。本文利用Fry(1995)的模型对1990年至2004年FDI对我国国内投资的影响进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,从总体上来看,FDI对我国国内投资具有显著的挤入效应;在东部不同省份存在明显的挤入或挤出效应;在中部不同省份存在一定程度的挤入效应或效应不确定、不明显;在西部部分省份存在挤出效应,多数省份效应不明显。

The Influence of FDI on Chinese Domestic Investment: Crowding in or out?

Under the open condition,the influence of FDI on domestic capital formation is of more and more importance,which acts as crowding in(or out)domestic investment.Making use of the Model of Fry(1995),this paper demonstrates the influence of FDI on our country from 1992 to 2004 and finds that it crowds in investment remarkably as a whole.Moreover,further analysis exhibits that this effect varies from areas to areas-it displays obvious influence of crowding in and out in the East,while its positive effect is limited or uncertain or insignificant in Central China;and in the West,it is inconspicuous in most provinces or even crowds out investment in some districts.