Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001 |
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| Authors: | Budina, Nina van Wijnbergen, Sweder |
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| Affiliation: | Nina Budina is a senior economist in the Economic Policy and Debt Department at the World Bank; her e-mail address is nbudina{at}worldbank.org
Sweder van Wijnbergen (corresponding author) is a professor of economics at the University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands; A technical appendix to this paper is available at |
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| Abstract: | This case study of fiscal sustainability in Turkey after thecrisis in 2001 reviews and extends quantitative approaches tofiscal sustainability analysis and brings them together in auser-friendly tool applicable in a data-sparse environment.It combines a dynamic simulations approach with a steady-stateconsistency approach. It also incorporates user-defined stresstests and stochastic simulations to deal with uncertainty. Andit derives the future distribution of debt-output ratios, evaluatingthe fiscal adjustment required to stabilize them. Value at Riskanalysis shows that considerable risks remain unless explicitfeedback rules from debt surprises to the primary surplus areimplemented. |
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