对外贸易对广东省经济增长作用的实证研究

本文在回顾了国内外关于对外贸易与经济增长之间关系的理论和文献的基础上,利用广东省1987-2002年的宏观经济系列数据,构建联立方程模型,对外贸促进广东省经济增长这一论断进行了实证研究,计算出历年对外贸易对广东省经济增长的实际贡献率和拉动度。分析表明,出口额每增长10.33%可以促进GDP增长约1%。

Positive Analysis on the Effect of Foreign Trade on the Economic Growth of Guang-dong Province

After reviewing the literatures on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, this paper proposes a group of simultaneous equations with sample data from 1987 to 2002, in order to verify the improvement of foreign trade to the economic growth of Guang-dong province. It finds that a 10.33 percent increase in export will result in a one percent increase in GDP, if both the direct and indirect contributions are considered.