火电项目融资的现金流量风险评价——基于探索图的指标体系

已有关于火电项目风险的研究基本未重点考察现金流量风险。本文从火电项目融资的角度出发,发现现金流量风险的重要性,尝试性地运用复杂科学管理系统思维的工具——探索图,为火电项目的建设期、试生产期和生产运营期分别建立风险评估指标体系,并用动态模糊评价方法确定每期和全过程的现金流量风险程度,为火电项目融资决策提供依据。

Cash Flow Risk Assessment of Thermal Power Project Financing: Indicators System Based on the Exploring Graph

The existing research on thermal power project risks almost does not focus on examining the cash flow risk.From the perspective of thermal power project financing,this paper finds out the importance of cash flow risk,and tries to apply the complex scientific management＇s systems thinking tool,the exploring graph for the thermal power project in the construction period,trial production period and production period to respectively establish risk assessment indicator systems.And with dynamic fuzzy evaluation method,this paper evaluates the degree of every process and whole process＇ cash flow risk,and provides some basis for decision making to the thermal power project financing.