后人口红利时代的经济增长

人口红利是指人口转变中的某一阶段出现充足供给劳动力和高储蓄率给经济带来的正面影响。人口红利之后将面临高老年人口比所导致的人口负债。本文在理论层面讨论人口转变与经济增长的关系,认为人口红利期劳动力增长和高储蓄率是经济增长的动力,人口红利期之后必须通过资本积累、技术进步和人力资源开发,才能保持可持续增长。研究了中国充分挖掘人口转变潜在贡献的现实困境,给出后人口红利时代的理性建议。

Late population dividend era’s economy growth

The demographic dividend refers to the positive impact to the economy from the adequate supply of labor and the high savings rate in the process of demographic transition.After that,the economy will face huge elderly population which cost large of pension expenditure.By discussing the relationship between demographic transition and economic growth in theory,the paper found that labor force growth and high savings rate were the causes of high economic growth,and after the demographic dividend period we should accumulate capital,make innovation and develop human resources in order to maintain sustainable growth.The paper also gave rational proposal in the end of demographic dividend period through the study in the predicament in which we explore the potential contribution in demographic transition.