乡村民宿外来经营者投资风险感知对效益期待的影响及其代际差异

目的 探讨外来经营者投资乡村民宿时的风险认知如何影响心理预期和后续行为决策以及这一关系是否存在代际差异对于乡村民宿产业高质量、可持续发展具有重要作用。方法 文章以现代民宿发源地莫干山地区为例，首先基于社会认知理论识别外来经营者投资乡村民宿的特殊性风险要素，其次运用Logistic回归模型分析个体风险要素识别能力与投资效益期待的影响关系及其代际差异。结果 （1）外来经营者投资乡村民宿的风险结构包括系统性经营风险、乡村环境风险及其个体身份特征风险等；（2）外来经营者对不同风险的认知差异化影响了其投资效益期待程度；（3）投资风险认知对效益期待的影响在新生代群体与亲代群体中存在代际差异，其中新生代群体风险认知较强但对投资乡村民宿的效益期待呈悲观倾向，亲代群体则相反。结论 未来需引导我国乡村民宿投资市场回归理性，通过政策细化使新生代外来经营者重拾投资信心，并通过民宿经营者互动平台建设增强亲代外来经营者风险预警意识，以减少投资失败情境、推动民宿产业高质量发展。

IMPACT AND INTERGENERATION DIFFERENCES OF NON-LOCAL OPERATORS' RISK PERCEPTION ON BENEFIT EXPECTATIONS IN RURAL HOMESTAY INVESTMENT

This research aims to explore how the risk perception of non-local operators influences psychological expectations and subsequent behavior and decisions in rural homestay investment, and examine whether there are intergenerational differences in this relationship, which is important in fostering the high-quality and sustainable development of the rural homestay industry. This study took a case study of Mogan Mountain, the birthplace of modern bed-and-breakfast (B&B). The social cognitive theory was adopted to identify the distinct risk factors that non-local operators encountered in rural homestay investment, and the Logistic regression model was deployed to analyze the correlation between individuals'' ability to identify risk factors and investment benefit expectations, as well as the intergenerational differences. The results were listed as follows. (1) The risk structure of non-local operators'' investment in rural homestays comprised systemic operational risk, rural environmental risk and risks related to their individual identity characteristics. (2) The differentiation of non-local operators'' perception of different risks influenced their investment benefit expectations. (3) There were intergenerational differences in the impact of investment risk perception on benefit expectations between the new generation and the parental generation. Specifically, the new generation demonstrated a stronger risk perception but held pessimistic benefit expectations regarding investment in rural homestays, which was in direct contrast to the parental generation. Therefore, it is imperative to guide the rural homestay investment market in China towards rationality, restore the confidence of new-generation non-local operators in investment, and establish an interactive platform for B&B operators to enhance risk awareness among parental-generation non-local operators, diminish investment failures and foster the high-quality development of the B&B industry.