中美贸易摩擦对国际贸易板块的冲击--基于事件研究法

中美建交40周年以来,中美经贸关系既有合作又有摩擦。自2018年3月美国向中国部分商品加征关税,中美贸易战正式打响,中美贸易摩擦持续升级,导致国际贸易板块剧烈波动,引发投资者恐慌情绪。本文基于事件研究法,分析"正面"和"负面"中美贸易摩擦新闻事件分别对国际贸易板块的影响,首先通过对"窗口期"平均异常收益率进行分析,为投资者分别提供在中美贸易新闻"正面""负面"事件冲击下利用股市"T+1"交易机制对国际贸易板块进行投资时获利的最佳投资点;其次通过对"窗口期"累计异常收益率的分析,为投资者分别提供在中美贸易"正面""负面"两种新闻事件冲击下对国际贸易板块进行投资的最佳区间,最大化其超额收益。为投资者在中美贸易摩擦时期对国际贸易板块进行投资时,合理的规避风险、最大化其超额收益,同时提升投资者在负面新闻事件发出时的情绪,减少国际贸易公司市值的进一步缩水。

Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on International Trade Stocks--Event-Based Research Method

Since the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States,Sino-US economic and trade relations have had both cooperation and friction. Since the United States imposed tariffs on some Chinese commodities in March 2018, the Sino-US trade war has officially started and Sino-US trade frictions have continued to escalate, causing sharp fluctuations in the international trade sector and triggering panic among investors. Based on the event research method, this paper analyzes the impact of "positive" and "negative" Sino-US trade friction news events on the international trade sector respectively. Firstly, by analyzing the average abnormal return rate during the "window period", it provides investors with the best investment point to make profits when using the "T+1" trading mechanism of the stock market to invest in the international trade sector under the impact of "positive" and "negative" Sino-US trade news events respectively.Secondly, through the analysis of accumulated abnormal returns during the "window period", investors are provided with the best intervals to invest in the international trade sector under the impact of "positive" and "negative" news events of Sino-US trade respectively, so as to maximize their excess returns. And it aims for investors to avoid risks reasonably and maximize their excess returns when investing in the international trade sector during the Sino-US trade friction period, at the same time,to enhance investors’ mood when negative news events are issued, and to reduce the further shrinkage of the market value of international trade companies.