INTERACTIONS BETWEEN WELFARE CASELOADS AND LOCAL LABOR MARKETS |
| |
| Authors: | BRIAN C. HILL MATTHEW N. MURRAY |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Hill: Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, Salisbury University, Salisbury, MD 21801. Phone 410‐677‐3860;2. Fax 410‐546‐6208;3. E‐mail bchill@salisbury.edu;4. This project is funded under an agreement with the Tennessee Department of Human Services. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Tennessee Department of Human Services. The authors thank Don Bruce, Mohammed Mohsin, and participants of the brown bag workshop series of the Department of Economics at the University of Tennessee for comments on an earlier version of this paper.;5. Murray: Professor, Department of Economics and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996‐4634. Phone 865‐974‐6084;6. Fax 865‐974‐3100;7. E‐mail mmurray1@utk.edu |
| |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical examination of interactions between welfare caseloads and local labor markets using data on caseload stocks, entries, and exits. Granger‐causality tests show that unemployment rates Granger‐cause caseload activity but caseload activity does not Granger‐cause unemployment rates. The results also reveal differential dynamics between caseloads and labor market conditions for rural versus metropolitan markets. Several models of one‐way association between caseload activity and unemployment rates are presented. The results show that higher unemployment rates are positively associated with welfare caseloads and entries and negatively related to exits. (JEL I38, R23) |
| |
| Keywords: | |
|
|
