Aging and house prices |
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| Authors: | El?d Takáts |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, Tilburg University, PO Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands;2. Tilburg University, CentER, Netspar;3. School of Management and Economics, CeRP-CCA and Netspar;4. International Longevity Centre-UK, CeRP-CCA;5. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Netherlands;1. Hang Lung Center for Real Estate Center for Urbanization and Industrial Development, Tsinghua University, China;2. Department of Accountancy, Hang Seng Management College, Shatin, Hong Kong;1. Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 16-21 Silver Street, Cambridge CB3 9EP, United Kingdom;2. International Real Estate Business School, University of Regensburg, Universitätsstr. 31, 93053 Regensburg, Germany;1. Department of Built Environment, Aalto University, PL 14100, 00076 Aalto, Finland;2. School of Economics, University of Turku, Rehtorinpellonkatu 3, 20500 Turku, Finland;3. School of Urban and Regional Planning and School of Public Administration, Florida Atlantic University, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA;4. GFRI and Swiss Finance Institute, University of Geneva, 40 boulevard du Pont-d''Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland;5. University of Aberdeen Business School, Aberdeen, Scotland, United Kingdom;6. Kedge Business School, Bordeaux, France |
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| Abstract: | The paper investigates how aging will affect house prices. It uses for the first time a house price dataset covering 22 advanced economies. The analysis finds that demography did and will affect real house prices significantly. The results suggest that a major shift is taking place. In the past 40 years, on average demography increased advanced economy real house prices by around 30 basis points per annum, while in the next 40 years aging will decrease them on average by around 80 basis points per annum compared to neutral demographics. The shift from demographic tailwinds to headwinds might also be relevant when thinking about financial asset prices. |
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