对华反补贴的发展趋势及对我国的启示

本文以2006年年底所发生的美国针对中国铜版纸反补贴案为基础,通过对比反倾销和反补贴这两种贸易救济方式的不同,认为反补贴很难成为贸易救济的主要方式。之后,在考虑反补贴调查相关程序的基础上,通过建立基于两国策略的博弈模型,得出结论如下:反补贴难以成为贸易摩擦的主要方式;一旦启动调查程序,补贴行为被否定的概率极小;关于出口国的策略选择,出口国对进口国的调查采取不回应的态度,并不必然导致结果的恶化。鉴于面临反补贴调查的国家、行业和企业所可能遭受的影响,给出了应对反补贴的指导原则和具体措施。

Developing Tendency of Anti-subsidy against China and Its Revelation to China

Based on USA's copper plate paper anti-subsidy case against China happened in the end of 2006, after comparing the differences between the two trade remedy measures, anti-subsidy and anti-dumping, this paper thinks that anti-subsidy can hardly becomes the main measure of trade remedy. And then, after considering the related investigating procedures of anti-subsidy, through constructing the two-country game model, the paper draws conclusions as follows: anti-subsidy is difficult to become the main mode of trade friction; once started up, the probability of subsidy being denied is very small; according to the strategy adjustment for export country, adopting"make no response"attitude to import country will not lead to certain deterioration of outcome. However, whereas the potential influence to the country, industries and enterprises facing the possibility of being prosecuted anti-subsidy survey, the paper propose the golden rules and material measures of dealing with anti-subsidy in the end.