The design approach to socio-economic modelling

The exploration of alternative futures is an important part of socio-economic analysis. This paper describes one approach to socio-economic modelling that is intended to support this exploration by scenario analysis. The approach involves the representation of a socio-economic system by a simulation framework which has no imposed optimization. Alternative futures are explored by changing the control variables governing the simulation framework which is a loosely coupled set of physical transformation processes, each using existing design information to represent a segment of the economy. The variables that control the processes are set by the user or, alternatively, by the user in conjunction with a model of decision processes. In this way, the user is an integral part of the system and a source of novelty. A prototype representation of the Canadian socio-economic system serves to illustrate this approach and its use.