城镇居民预防性储蓄动机强度的再认识

国内需求的萎靡不振已成当前经济学界的一个热点问题,而城镇居民储蓄的高速增长与此紧密相连,预防性储蓄强度在居民储蓄行为中起着重要作用.本文基于理性消费者最大化其一生效用的假设,推导出衡量居民预防性储蓄动机强度的新公式.随后,用30个省际地区1985-2010年的年度数据进行实证分析,结果显示,1998年前后城镇居民存在着明显的预防性储蓄强度的结构变化,这种转变对于政府决策具有重要意义.

A Re-understanding of Motive Strength of the Urban Residents Precautionary Savings

Chinese domestic demand is stagnant,which becomes a hot issue in the academic community,and the rapid growth of household savings is closely linked with this.Precautionary saving motive in Chinese household savings plays an important role already becoming a basic consensus.This paper,under the premise of a rational consumer to maximize his lifetime's utility,we re-derive the measure of strength of precautionary saving formula;by using a data set from Chinese thirty provinces,municipalities and autonomous re...