上海城市化进程与旅游业发展的动态计量研究

为探求上海城市化进程与旅游业发展之间的真实关系,文章根据1978-2011年的时间序列数据,利用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应及方差分解模型,对上海城市化水平与旅游业发展水平的关系进行了动态计量分析,结果发现:(1)上海城市化进程与旅游业发展之间存在长期均衡关系,两者基本处于协调发展状态；(2)上海城市化进程与旅游业发展之间已经形成了积极互动的格局；(3)在上海城市化和旅游业发展的双向影响关系上,两者的力量对比并不平衡,城市化对上海旅游业的推动作用大于旅游业对上海城市化的贡献度；(4)从短期效应来看,旅游业发展会引起上海城市化水平的快速上升,而城市化进程对上海旅游业发展的作用则较为稳定持久,难以出现导致剧烈波幅的增长;(5)上海城市化进程的深入必须注重质量提升,否则将会对旅游业发展产生较大负面影响.

An Analysis of Dynamic Econometric Relationship between Urbanization and Tourism Development in Shanghai

In order to explore the relationship between urbanization and tourism growth in Shanghai,based on the data from 1978 to 2011,using econometric methods such as co-integration tests,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,this paper makes an dynamic econometric analysis of the relationship between the level of urbaniza tion and tourism growth in Shanghai.The results as follows,firstly,a long-term balance exists between urbanization and tour ism development in Shanghai,and it develops coordinately.Secondly,Shanghai urbanization and tourism industry have formed a positive interactive patterns.Thirdly,in the two-way relationship between urbanization and tourism growth in Shang hai,their strength is not equal,and the promotion from urbanization is greater than the one from tourism growth.Fourthly,from the perspective of short term effect,a quick rise of Shanghai urbanization will be stimulated by tourism,but the same sit uation will not appear because the effect of urbanization on tourism growth in Shanghai is stable and lasting..Finally,Shang hai urbanization’s quality needs being enhanced,or the negative effect will be emerged.