危机管理:混沌情境中的契约建构 ——基于2008-2013年危机管理成败的证据

危机是混沌情境中的吊诡问题，而非稳定情境中的驯服问题。危机常态化、复杂化、联动化，危机情境混沌化，显示了危机管理研究的局限和实践的困惑。本文基于2008-2013年危机管理成败案例，运用多案例分析和质性分析相结合的方法，构建了混沌情境下的危机管理理论和实践模型。从理论创新上讲，传统危机管理理论注重工具与方法；混沌情境下的危机管理注重问题认识和情境分析。该理论的核心观点有：利益相关者关系结构和冲突诉求，是混沌情境的主要生成要素；识别核心利益相关者是走出混沌情境的突破点；契约建构是组织危机管理成功的关键。从实践创新上讲，本文构建了危机管理的3R模型，并进行了案例验证。本文为混沌情境下的危机管理开创了研究视角，探索了研究框架，开发了管理模型，可以更好地指导危机管理实践。

REFRAMING CRISIS MANAGEMENT: CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION IN CHAOTIC SITUATION——Evidence from Crisis Management Cases (2008-2013)

Crisis is a not a tame problem in stable environment but a wicked problem in chaotic situationCrises are much more normal, complex, and interdepend, while the crisis situation becomes much more chaoticThen we need a breakthrough in crisis management research to address the theoretical and practical limitationsWith a qualitative analysis of crisis management cases from 2008 to 2013, this paper proposes an innovative approach to reframe crisis management theory from the perspective of chaos theoryFrom the theory breakthrough side, the traditional crisis management theory pays more attention to management tools and methodsIn contrast, the new theory framework emphasizes on problem cognition and situation analysisThere are three main research conclusionsThe first is that chaotic situation can be analyzed from the perspective of stakeholderSecond, focusing on the contract construction with the core stakeholder is the key to problem solvingAnd last, crisis management is not contract mending but contract reorganizingFrom the practice breakthrough side, this paper builds an evidence based 3R model, including reduction, recognition and reorganizationThis paper establishes the foundation for crisis management in chaotic situation, and provides a better guide for management practice