调整的实际汇率法与人民币估值

本文首先梳理了调整的实际汇率法的理论脉络,然后针对弗兰克尔等国外学者用这种方法估值人民币汇率的不足提出并解释了以下质疑:根据调整的实际汇率法,货币的低估是相对于经济发展水平的,但当时人民币是盯住美元的,两者怎么结合?样本选择的不同对回归方程与估值结果的影响怎样?仅仅用代表经济发展水平的一个变量解释实际汇率,是否具有局限性?根据调整的实际汇率法制定一个未来10年人民币汇率的调整政策,可行性怎样?

The Method of Modified Real Exchange Rate and the Renminbi Valuation

The theoretical derivation of the theory-modified real exchange rate method-is looked back in this paper firstly. For the shortages and blanks that foreign scholars such as Frankel (2005) left in their studies, the writer put forwards following queries and gives the explanations: The devaluation of currencies based on this method is for economic development level, but Renminbi exchange rate was pegged to US dollars at that time. How can the two combine? Can conclusions from the method be enough to draw up policies for Renminbi in the future ten years?