人民币名义有效汇率对进口价格的传递效应研究

本文基于一个成本加成模型,实证分析了人民币名义有效汇率对进口价格的传递效应。结果表明,1995年第一季度到2007年第二季度期间,人民币名义有效汇率的进口价格传递是不完全的:汇率若升值1%,短期内进口价格下降约0.26个百分点,长期下降0.25—0.29个百分点。利用滚动回归方法发现1995至2007年期间汇率对进口价格的传递程度呈先下降后上升的趋势。进一步检验表明,人民币名义有效汇率对进口价格的传递一定程度上内生于国内通货膨胀环境,同时也可能和进口产品结构的演变有关。

On the Pass-through Effect of RMB Nominal Effective Exchange Rate on Import Price

Based on the mark up model,the paper empirically analyses the pass-through effect of nominal effec- tive exchange rate of BMB on the import price.The result shows that during the period of first quarter of 1995 to second quarter of 2007,the pass-throngh of the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB on the import price was incomplete.According to the rolling-window regression approach,the authors also find that during 1995 to 2007 period,the pass-through effect of the BMB exchange rate on the import price fi...