高校扩招、人口迁移与房价上涨

基于高校扩招背景下人口迁移的新视角对房价上涨的机理进行分析，并采用全国35个大中城市的面板数据对命题进行检验，结果表明，城市房价上涨的最主要推动力来源于迁移人口的新增住房需求，而随着高校扩招政策实施，在所有迁移人口当中，高校毕业大学生成为了其中购买能力较高、人口最多、自由迁移能力和动力最强的一个群体。他们来自全国各地，从高校毕业后却集中向一些大中城市迁移，对当地房价形成了显著的正向影响。由于受购买力等因素限制，大学生人口迁移对房价的影响存在滞后性，毕业后第3年的影响最大，之后第4、第5年影响有所缩小。文章也证实了反映居民收入的工资收入、反映货币因素的信贷量、反映人口增长的人口密度、反映投资性需求的上一期房价等变量对城市房价上涨具有显著正向影响。

College Enrollment Expansion,Population Immigration and House Price Rising

This paper has analyzed the mechanism of china’s house price rising by a new perspective of population immigration based on the background of college enrollment expansion, and tested the proposition by using the panel data of the national 35 large and medium-sized cities. The results shows that the main driving force of china’s house price rising comes from new immigrants’ housing demand, and the university graduates have become an immigrant group with the highest purchase capacity, the largest population, the strongest free migration ability and motive force among all the immigration population while the college enrollment expansion was implemented. They come from all over the country, but has focused on some large and medium cities after graduation from the university, which has a significant positive impact on the local housing prices. Due to factors such as purchasing power limit, the graduates immigration had made a lagging positive impact on cities’ house prices, and the third year after graduation had the largest impact while the fourth and fifth years had the reduced impact. This paper also confirmed that the variables, such as the income, the credit amount reflecting currency factors, the population density reflecting population growth and the last house price reflecting investment demand, have a positive impact on cities’ house prices.