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Return seasonality in the foreign exchange market
Authors:Yiuman Tse
Institution:College of Business Administration, University of Missouri – St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA
Abstract:I examine return seasonality in the foreign exchange market using currency futures during the period 1973?2015. All the G10 currency futures yield negative returns in January and this effect happens more often in the countries that have a tax year ending in December. In contrast, returns offered in April are positive. To exploit these anomalies, I use a seasonality strategy that selects portfolios based on their historical same-calendar-month returns. I find that this strategy does not work in the currency market, although I find consistent results with Keloharju et al. in the stock portfolios.
Keywords:Return seasonality  foreign exchange market  currency futures  trading strategies
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