Exogenous information and input-output updating: An evaluation |
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Authors: | Ali Reza Jalili |
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Institution: | (1) Mercer University, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | Input-output coefficients' intertemporal instability, costs, and time lags involved in the construction of survey-based tables
necessitate employment of nonsurvey updating techniques. Analysts, however, may want to include exogenous information in the
updating process. The issue, then, is whether this inclusion ameliorates or aggravates the results. This paper attempts to
assess the wisdom of incorporating exogenous information into the updating procedure. First, using the naive, RAS, and LaGrangian
techniques, the 1966 table of the former Soviet Union was updated to 1972. Next, treating the top 10 percent largest 1972
coefficients as exogenous estimates, the remaining coefficients were updated via the same three methods. Comparison of the
results indicates that exogenous determination of the largest coefficients does not change the methods' rankings while yielding
substantial improvements in the forecasts.
This paper was presented at the Forty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Boston, MA, October 8–11, 1998. |
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Keywords: | |
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