我国的外贸顺差、外国直接投资与货币化率:1988-2004

本文首先建立了外贸顺差和FDI影响货币供应,进而影响货币化率的理论模型。模型表明:外贸顺差、FDI、存款准备金率和现金存款比率是影响货币化率的主要因素。同时,运用1988-2004年中国的外贸顺差、FDI和货币化率等有关数据进行了回归分析、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验。实证检验结果与理论模型的结论高度一致。基本结论是:1988-2004年间,外贸顺差、FDI的大幅增加是我国货币化率大幅上升的最主要的原因;法定存款准备金率与货币化率呈显著的负相关关系;CM1与货币化率呈负相关关系。

Foreign Trade Surplus, FDI and Monetarization Ratio in China:1988-2004

Firstly, this paper establishes a model which explains the mechanism through which foreign trade surplus and FDI affect the monetarization ratio. The model concludes that the increase of foreign trade surplus and FDI can induce the increase of the level of monetarization. Positive analysis using annual observations from 1988-2004 also indicates that increase of foreign trade sur-plus and FDI is the main cause of high level monetarization in China during 1988-2004. In addi-tion, ratio of required reserve and currency to deposit shows negative relationship with the moneta-rization level.