我国贸易依存度与经济增长的适度比例

近些年来,我国出口飞速增加,从而引起了我国贸易依存度的急剧上升。从短期来看,虽然贸易会促进经济的快速发展,但是从长期来看则会损害我国经济的健康发展。本文通过建立误差修正模型来对我国贸易依存度与经济增长的长期均衡关系进行检验。结果表明,目前我国贸易依存度过高,并且出口依存度也出现了过高的情形。因此从长期来看,依靠贸易来拉动经济增长的空间已经非常有限,要想提高经济增长率就必须从内需入手,这样可以降低贸易依存度,从而减少我国以后可能面临的经济体系风险。

The Impact of Trade Dependent Degree on China's Economic Growth

In recent years, the export of China develops rapidly, and it leads to the sharply increase of China's trade dependent degree, and as a result, it may do harm to the healthy development of China's economic system. This paper studies the long term equilibrium relation between trade dependent degree and economic growth in China by employing the ECM model. The result indicates that both of the trade dependent degree and the export dependent degree are too high. As a result, the driving force of trade to the economic growth in China is limited in the long run. If we want to improve the economic growth rate, we must try our best to expand domestic demand. In turn, it will decrease China's trade dependent degree, and reduce the risk China's economic system will face in the future.