Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;2. Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia;1. Faculty of Economics, Fukuyama University, Japan;2. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan;3. Institute of Developing Economies, Faculty of Global and Regional Studies, Toyo University, Japan;4. Institute of Developing Economies, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Waseda University, Japan;5. Faculty of Economics, Kagawa University, Japan;1. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan;2. JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, 10-5, Ichigaya Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8433, Japan;3. Graduate School of Social Sciences, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoi-cho Inage-ku, Chiba, Chiba 263-8522, Japan;1. Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8636, Japan;2. Osaka University of Commerce, 4-1-10 Mikuriya-Sakae, Higashi-Osaka, Osaka, 577-8505, Japan;3. Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research. 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 1868601 Japan |
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| Abstract: | This study quantified the effects of immigration policies in an aging and depopulating Japan. Under a constant total number of immigrants, it focused on the optimal period for an immigration policy that maximized per-capita utility. Simulation results, based on an extended lifecycle simulation model with endogenous fertility, showed that a longer period immigration policy increased the future population and enhanced long-run economic growth. Conversely, a shorter period immigration policy enhanced economic growth in earlier years but less so in the long run. This study found that an optimal duration for an immigration policy, under the standard parameter settings for Japan, was nine years; this finding was derived through reconciling the merits and demerits between shorter and longer period immigration policies. |
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