Does the productivity J-curve exist in Japan?-Empirical studies based on the multiple q theory |
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| Institution: | 1. Gakushuin University and RIETI, Japan;2. Rissho University, Japan;3. Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Japan;1. Department of International Relations, Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, 9-1 Gakuen-Higashimachi, Nishi-ku, Kobe 651-2187, Japan;2. College of Business Administration, Ritsumeikan University, 2-150 Iwakura-cho, Ibaraki, Osaka 567-8570, Japan;1. Faculty of Economics, Fukuyama University, Japan;2. Institute of Developing Economies, Japan;3. Institute of Developing Economies, Faculty of Global and Regional Studies, Toyo University, Japan;4. Institute of Developing Economies, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Waseda University, Japan;5. Faculty of Economics, Kagawa University, Japan;1. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia;2. Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia;1. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan;2. JICA Ogata Sadako Research Institute for Peace and Development, 10-5, Ichigaya Honmuracho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8433, Japan;3. Graduate School of Social Sciences, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoi-cho Inage-ku, Chiba, Chiba 263-8522, Japan;1. Meiji Gakuin University, 1-2-37 Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-8636, Japan;2. Osaka University of Commerce, 4-1-10 Mikuriya-Sakae, Higashi-Osaka, Osaka, 577-8505, Japan;3. Hitotsubashi University, Institute of Economic Research. 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 1868601 Japan |
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| Abstract: | Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson (2021) argued that the standard TFP growth is low during an investment boom for new technology such as the IT revolution. As the new capital is operated and productivity improves, the shape of the movements in the standard productivity growth resembles a J-curve. However, when costs associated with investment for new technology are recognized as intangible investment - which is not counted in the conventional value added –, the revised TFP growth including these unmeasured intangibles show different movements from the standard TFP growth. Following Brynjolfsson, Rock, and Syverson (2021), we examine the gap between the standard TFP growth and the revised TFP growth. According to their theory, unmeasured intangibles are estimated by the gap between the shadow value and the price of investment goods. We obtain this shadow value of investment through an estimated parameter in each asset using listed firm-level data and revise the standard TFP growth rate. In the case of all industries, the standard TFP growth is overestimated in most years in the late 1990s and the 2000s, because the growth in intangible investment associated with measured investment is lower than measured capital accumulation rate. When we focus on the IT-intensive industries, we find the productivity J-curve in the late 1990s, at the early stage of the IT revolution, as indicated by Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (2021). |
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