Migration of container terminals as their natural process of evolution: Case study of Gdańsk and Gdynia ports

The paper proposes a theoretical model of container terminals and container port development, based on the life cycle theory, threshold theory and catastrophe theory, and in references to Kuznets' swings (interpreted as waves of infrastructural investments), and Kondratiev long economic waves.The aim of this model is to explain the development process of a container terminal and a port within one technological generation, as well as in intergenerational configuration, and relate it to the migration process of container terminals in the scale of a port-city urban area. Then, the applicability of this model was checked in the case of the container ports in Gdynia and Gdańsk (Poland). The analysed evolution process of ports of Gdynia and Gdańsk conforms with the proposed theoretical model, proving that the migration of container terminals within these ports is a part of their natural process of evolution, being a consequence of their threshold development and location splitting.Considering the physical location of development investments within the container ports of Gdańsk and Gdynia, it was noticed that there are two basic directions of migration of container terminals. One is the migration of the port's main container activity (core terminal or terminals), being a result of a generational change taking place after overcoming the maturity point. The second type of migration is connected with dispersion of port development investments in the increasingly distant port hinterland, caused by the need of the life extension of terminals within one technological generation.In an analogy to the processes of development of living organisms, we can treat the migration of terminal outsourced functions as a “vegetative” increase, being an attempt to extend the life of the terminal, while the migration of the core terminal within the port area (erecting a new generation terminal) can be treated as “generative” growth.