Identifying latent demand for transit-oriented development neighbourhoods: Evidence from a mid-sized urban area in Canada |
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| Institution: | 1. WSP Canada Inc., 1600, boulevard René-Lévesque Ouest, 16e étage, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3H 1P9;2. Montreal University Research Center (CRCHUM) CHUM - Pavilion S 850, St-Denis St., Canada;3. École de Santé Publique de l’Université de Montréal (ESPUM) 7101, rue du Parc, Montréal, H3N 1X9, Canada;4. Department of Geography, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke St. West, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3A 0B9;5. School of Urban Planning, McGill University, Suite 400, 815 Sherbrooke St. W., Montréal, Québec, Canada H3A 0C2;1. School of Civil Engineering and the Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia;2. School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia;1. School of Civil Engineering and the Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia.;2. School of Earth Environment and Biological Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, 2 George Street, Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia.;3. School of the Built Environment, University of Ulster, Shore Road, Newtownabbey, County Antrim, BT37 0QB Northern Ireland, UK;4. School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Victoria Park Road, Kelvin Grove, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia. |
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| Abstract: | Many studies have provided strong evidence of residents' support for the characteristics of transit-oriented development (TOD) neighbourhoods, but few have explicitly investigated the question of whether these preferences translate into their actual choices. How many households are experiencing a state of residential mismatch between preferred and actual neighbourhoods? What trade-offs have they made in residential location choices? We draw on data from a 2017 residential location choice survey in Kitchener Waterloo (KW), Canada, and employ latent class analysis (LCA) to address these questions. The light-rail transit (LRT) corridor encompassing the area that is 800 m surrounding LRT stops is defined as the TOD area. This study finds empirical evidence of TOD preferences in mid-sized cities and further uncovers latent demand for TOD neighbourhoods during the LRT construction phase. 37% of respondents hold strong TOD preferences but purchased outside TOD areas. These households are primarily young families (aged 25–34) with children and represent a possible missing target in TOD housing supply in our study area. Our findings provide support for building more “missing middle” intensified family housing in TOD areas of mid-sized cities. |
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