| 基于灰色——马尔柯夫模型的逆向物流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴玉朝,蔡启明,李斌. 基于灰色——马尔柯夫模型的逆向物流量预测[J]. 物流科技, 2008, 31(10): 19-22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴玉朝 蔡启明 李斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学,江苏,南京,210016 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对逆向物流量不稳定、波动性较大的特点,对不满足惯性要求的原始数据进行数据变换处理后,综合灰色GM（1,1）模型和马尔柯夫模型各自的优势,建立相应的逆向物流量预测模型,对某一汽车零部件企业的逆向物流量进行预测。结果表明该模型预测精度较高,具有一定应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1,1)模型 灰色马尔柯夫 逆向物流量 预测 |
Forecasting to Reverse Logistics Quantity Based on Grey-Markov Model |
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| WU Yu-chao,CAI Qi-ming,Li Bin. Forecasting to Reverse Logistics Quantity Based on Grey-Markov Model[J]. Logistics Management, 2008, 31(10): 19-22 |
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| Authors: | WU Yu-chao CAI Qi-ming Li Bin |
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| Affiliation: | (Nanjing University of Aeronautics ＆ Astronautics, Nanjing 210016, China) |
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| Abstract: | In view of characteristics of reverse logistics quantity-unstable and fluctuating property,first data transformation is tacked on the primary data which can not meet inertia requirement.Second,the corresponding reverse logistics quantity prediction model is established based on the respective advantages of grey GM(1,1) model and the Markov model.At last the paper forecasts and analyzes the reverse logistics quantity of one automobile spare part enterprise in 2005.The result indicates that the forecasting precision of this model is very high and the result has great value in practices. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) model grey markov reverse logistics quantity forecasting |
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